THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS.
Björn Nygren, SPin 2c. Teachers: Björn Swéden, Ninni Westerman & Julia Riabouchkina.
1. Introduction
The Cuban missile crisis has been a very popular subject of research ever since it occured in October 1962. I chose it because it is an event i have often heard of but never really known what it really was. What I had heard was that it was a complete victory for USA. John F. Kennedy and his administration did all the right things and forced Soviet on their knees.
Aims:
My Hypothesis was: The Russians acted irrational during the crisis.
My first questing was simply: Did the Russians act irrational during the crisis?
Although I from the beginning knew it would be difficult to find material about this thing it has been even harder then I had thought. Therefore and because of material concerning this and other events before, during and after the crisis, I have widened the scope of the work a little. The thing I mainly concentrated on is the two letters from Krushchev in October 26 and 27. They are intresting but it has been almost impossible to find anything more than questions in the matter. Further, since i had read the Introduction by the national security archive I decided to add some further topics to the scope.
Questions:
What was the biggest dangers during the crisis?
Was it legitimate of Cuba to ask Soviet for help, assuming they were not forced to have missiles on their territory?
2. About sources:
I have used three main surces during my work on the Cuban missile crisis: Thirteen days by Robert F. Kennedy, President John F. Kennedys brother. He was senator at the time of the crisis and a member of the Excomm group. This is ofcourse a heavy factor when it comes to the probability of bias in the material. I have found that many , not so convenient, facts has been left out, such as at the time before the crisis ongoing UnitedState operations of undermining the Cuban regim ( Operation Mongoose.) An essay in Case histories in International politics by Kendall W.Stiles of Loyola University in Chicago. This source I have found more objective. The essay includes a description of the crisis, an analysis of the American decision making and of the American respond to Soviet offers. The work concerns the American way of working but it doesn't suffer from bias in the same way as Thirteen days although it doesn't present any directly critical material. Perhaps the most intresting source I found on internet, it was found on The National Security archives homepage. It is an Introduction of the Cuban Missile Crisis by Peter Kornbluh and Laurence Chang. The National Security Archive is an American independent organisation that work for the release of confidential material in Washington. They have managed to get former confidential material concerning the Cuba-Crisis and a lot of other Cold-war conflicts released since they were formed and they have a very critical view of the crisis.
3. Method of research:
The three works mentioned has been my main sources, I have also talked to Eduardo Contreras Villanueva that is a political refugee from Chile and active in the "left-party" here in Sweden. His father was a communist politician with contacts on Cuba. I have also talked to Julia Riabouchkina because of her Russian background. These talks could not be called interwievs and there has been no time for deeper discussions with either of them.
4.Results:
First i'd like to make a summary of the crisis: Probably, in September 1962 Russian missiles were started to get deployed on Cuba. Monday 15th of October a U-2 plane, an american spy plane, that flew over Cuba discovered deployment of such a missile site. On the morning the following day the president of the United- States ( At that time John F. Kennedy.) was informed by his national security advisor McGeorge Bundy about the matter. By then CIA had produced detailed photo-evidence of Missile installations on Cuba. A group consisting of "..individuals chosen for their authority over certain key areas of foreign policy and/ or for their expertise on a substantive matter" (Stiles.) The group became known as Excomm ( The Executive commité.) In the evening the group, after having discussed possible solutions to the problem, had outlined three possible courses of action:
1. A political course of action involving Castro, Krushchev and US with its Allies to solve the crisis in a diplomatical way.
2. Official declaration of the crisis followed by a naval blockade of Cuba.
3. A military action against Cuba, starting with a massive airstrike against the Missile-installations, eventually followed by an invasion.
All propositions of ignoring the missiles were rejected by the president and a vast majority of the others in the Excomm-group. After this followed four days of intense discussion within the group. In the beginning it looked like most members was in favour for the Military option, even President Kennedy himself seemed positive to it. The Sectretary of Defence, Robert McNamara had a very pessimistic wiev on the military action and spoke daerly against it and of the events that might follow such a course of action. On Friday evening , October 20, President Kennedy had deeply considered all options and decided to impose a blockade on Cuba. On Sunday October 22 the blockade was put into action and Kennedy made it official in a speech to the World and the American people. During another four days the situation worsened, the build up on Cuba were accelerated instead of the opposite. Also, several minor incidents occured, An U-2 did by mistake fly into Soviet territory, The Organization of American States ( OAS ) met and must nations turned in favour for the United-States. October 26 Kennedy recieved a letter from Krushchev and October 27 a second one. In the first Krushchev expresses a deep concern on the possibility of a nuclearwar and a willingness to withdraw the missiles if the United States guaranteed Cuban Souvereignty. In the second letter a second condition was added, that USA removed their Jupiter missiles in Turkey. The Americans could by no means accept such a condition. Instead they decided to respond positive to the first letter and ignore the first. This succeded and on October 28 a letter from Krushchev arrived, accepting the deal. The Soviet missiles on Cuba was removed under American air- surveillance. In November 1 President Kennedy officialy announced the the removal of the Soviet missiles. The other part of the deal was that the American guarantee to not attacking Cuba by any means. I have found that Kennedy made a statement that USA would not make any aggressive act against Cuba in an official speech, but no other formal agreement has been made in this matter.
Analysis off Soviet acts:
During a month before the crisis, at the time the Missile deployment on Cuba had started, Russian official as ambassador Anatolij Dobrynin and Chruschev himself reapetedly denied the presence of Nuclear weapons on Cuba. The Soviet foreign minister Andrej Gromyko came for a visit shortly after that Excomm had started to meet, but before the Presidents knowledge of the presence of the Cuban missiles had been revealed. Although Kennedy knew about it he didn't tell Gromyko during their meeting. Instead he listened to Gromykos reapeted denial and his plead to USA to stop threats against Cuba and Castro. ( Robert Kennedy.) When it comes to Soviet acting during most of the cold war, nothing is for sure. Soviet has been a closed union with dearly kept secrets, especially when it comes to military decisions. Why did Soviet place missiles on Cuba? The question has many answers but probably not one off them are a hundred percent correct. The two common answers are:
1.Doubtlessly Soviet leaders didn't like the placement of middle- distance, nuclear Polaris missiles in Turkey. Therefore they answered in a similiar way and placed these missiles on Cuba, Castro and his government didn't have much to say about it about it.
2. Castro felt threathened by USA and therefore asked Chrustchev and his Politburo for the missiles.
The first answer is the American wiev, In his speeches J.F.Kennedy always called the Cubans "The subjugated Cubans". Castro was Soviet friendly and he had forced Cuba into the Communistic path with the help of Soviet. Now all they were was a marionet in the hands of Chrustchev. Chrustchev claimed in his memoirs and in speeches that Cuba had asked for the missiles and as Soviet supports their kinsmen they granted the request as they judged the threat to be for real. The two letters that was sent by Chrustchev on October 26 and 27 is intresting. In the first letter Chrustchev says that he is prepared to withdraw the missiles on Cuba on the condition that USA, in the Security-council, guarantees Cuban Souvereignty. In the Second, that arrived the day after while the first was still analyzed, another condition is added; USA has to withdraw their missiles from Turkey. This doesn't seem to be very rational of the Soviet government as they changed their minds over just a night. This is another question that has no for-sure correct answer. Both parts in the conflict acted under stress and the individual Excomm members changed their minds several times during the conflict, so the overnight change is possible. 1962 Chrustchevs power was declining and Bresnjev was gaining power. Both Krushchevs letters had been read through by the Politburo so it is not very belivable that Chrustchev sent the first letter, written very personally, in a haste and then his comrades in the Politburo forced him to add the second condition later.
Dangers:
How dangerous was the Cuban Missile Crisis? A very intresting question. During most of the crisis USA had the main initiative, they, if not started, triggered the crise-situation and negotiated only on their own terms. Soviet had to withdraw their missiles completly. Both part were under hard pressure and it is frightening how fast some of the main attendants on both sides could change their minds. The invasion alternative was favored by most of the Excomm members in the beginning and a number of them the whole time. Some even wanted an invasion after the crise! ( R.F.Kennedy.) What the Americans didn't know was that the Cubans posessed tactical nuclear weapons for use against an invading force and they had authority to fire these weapons without permission from Moscov. Taking in account an incident where an U- 2 plane were shot down by a by Cubans fired anti-air missile and the many times proven Cuban determination to fight back any United-State aggression, it is very belivable that those missiles would have been fired if USA would have initiated an invasion. Robert McNamara said in his book: "No one should belive that U.S troops could have been attacked by tactical nuclear warheads without th U.S responding with nuclear warheads. And where would it have ended? In utter disaster." In the case with the U-2 shot down the pilot got killed. After the incident many voices were raised within the Excomm group that such an aggression had to be answered with severe retaliation, that would mean that the invasion would be carried through after all. Other incidents from both sides were misinterpreted and each one of them could have triggered a rash decision resulting in nuclear war ( Kornbluh, Chang.) The Cuban situation. Castro had been in charge for some time during the crisis. When he came to power he introduced a communistic constitution on Cuba. This was much to disfavor for the U.S government. Several times CIA attempted Castros assasination. In the beginning of Kennedys first mandate-period as president U.S tried an invasion of Cuba with the help of Cuban refugees (Bay of Pigs) it resulted in failure. Before the Crisis USA had imposed heavy economical sanctions on Cuba, these sanctions is in effect still today. Also, U.S had initiated Operation Mongoose that included sabotage, infiltration and psycholgical warfare. In the guidelines for the operation, that was approved by President Kennedy, it is noted that final sucess of the operation "require decisive U.S military intervention." ( Kornbluh, Chang.)
Under these circumstances, when the doors to trade with U.S and its allies were shut, Castro didn't have much of a choice if he wanted to get his economy going, he had to turn to Soviet. The revealing of operation Mongoose makes it clear that U.S really was a truly existing military threat and Cuba would in the end be defenceless without Soviet assistance.
4.Discussion (my own opinion.):
I must say I have changed my mind in a lot of matters concerning the Crisis and the whole Coldwar during this work. My hypothesis proved to be very hard to prove either correct or incorrect. The USA way of handling the crisis could also be questioned I have realised, the stumbling decision-making process existed in both parts during the crisis. The whole Coldwar and so also the Cuba Crisis is by no means a war between black and white, good and bad as it first might look like to some people. I must say I see more reason to question USA:s acting in many ways, than the Soviet acting. I think that Soviets placement of missiles on Cuba saved them from an U.S invasion. USA:s refusal to remove their missiles from Turkey is intresting. Kennedy and his administration justified this only with that it would not be rightgeous towards Turkey, that was an ally of theirs. Considering that the missiles in Turkey, according to american sources as Robert and president John F. Kennedy, had lost their strategical importance, this was hardly an excuse enough to risk nuclear war. As a matter o fact I think it was a matter of prestige, President Kennedy didn't want to look weak to his voters in the upcoming U.S election. There is to be said that Kennedy told his administration that he was prepared to remove the missiles if his offer wouldn't be accepted.
6. Bibliography Kennedy, R F, Tretton dagar då världen stod stilla